1. What is Shiny Probability?

The shiny probability calculates your chance of encountering at least one shiny Pokémon after a certain number of encounters, given the base shiny rate. This follows the statistical principle of independent events.

2. How Does the Calculator Work?

The calculator uses the probability formula:

Where:

• \( p \) — Base shiny probability (default 1/4096 or ~0.000244)
• \( x \) — Number of encounters

Explanation: The formula calculates the complement probability (not finding a shiny) raised to the power of encounters, then subtracts from 1 to get the probability of finding at least one shiny.

3. Understanding Shiny Odds

Details: The probability approaches but never reaches 100%. Even after 4096 encounters with 1/4096 odds, you only have about a 63.2% chance of having found a shiny.

4. Using the Calculator

Tips: Enter the base shiny rate (default is standard 1/4096) and your number of encounters. The calculator will show your cumulative probability of having found at least one shiny.

5. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1: What's the standard shiny rate?
A: In most Pokémon games, the base rate is 1/4096 (~0.000244). Some games/methods can increase this rate.

Q2: How many encounters for 90% probability?
A: With 1/4096 odds, you need about 9,430 encounters for a 90% chance of finding at least one shiny.

Q3: Does this account for shiny charm?
A: No, you need to input the modified rate (e.g., 3/4096 with shiny charm) as the base probability.

Q4: Why doesn't probability reach 100%?
A: Probability is asymptotic - each encounter is independent, so there's always a tiny chance of extreme bad luck.

Q5: How does Masuda method affect this?
A: Masuda method typically increases base rate to 6/4096 (~1/683) which you would input as the base probability.